Estudiantes de Merida FC 1–0 Puerto Cabello

Estudiantes de Merida FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Puerto Cabello

4/18/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 12Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC43%

×Draw27%

Puerto Cabello29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes de Merida FCExpected goals in this matchPuerto Cabello

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.05

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.33

Puerto Cabello

1.05

Estudiantes de Merida FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 143 away

1.51

creates per match

1.02

1.08

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.51

Puerto Cabello

1.02

allows per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.08

Puerto Cabello

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par

Puerto Cabello+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Merida FC ↓

Puerto Cabello →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Merida FC or draw

71%

Estudiantes de Merida FC or Puerto Cabello

73%

Draw or Puerto Cabello

57%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+

20%

Puerto Cabello wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals

74%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals

38%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals

15%

Puerto Cabello 1+ goals

65%

Puerto Cabello 2+ goals

28%

Puerto Cabello 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)

59%

Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Merida FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 140 matches

Puerto Cabello away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.16 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.51 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Puerto Cabello attack 1.02 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more

43%

level

27%

Puerto Cabello scores more

29%

Estudiantes de Merida FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Estudiantes de Merida FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff