Puerto Cabello 0–0 Caracas FC: Result & Stats

Puerto Cabello

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Caracas FC

8/25/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 8Complejo Deportivo Socialista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 141+ matches

Puerto Cabello38%

×Draw28%

Caracas FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puerto CabelloExpected goals in this matchCaracas FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.11

Puerto Cabello

1.21

Caracas FC

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 141 home / 146 away

1.42

creates per match

1.22

1.01

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Puerto Cabello

1.42

Caracas FC

1.22

allows per match

Puerto Cabello

1.01

Caracas FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puerto Cabello+0.00on par

Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Cabello ↓

Caracas FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Puerto Cabello or draw

67%

Puerto Cabello or Caracas FC

72%

Draw or Caracas FC

62%

Winning margin

Puerto Cabello wins by 2+

16%

Caracas FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Puerto Cabello 1+ goals

70%

Puerto Cabello 2+ goals

34%

Puerto Cabello 3+ goals

12%

Caracas FC 1+ goals

67%

Caracas FC 2+ goals

30%

Caracas FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)

53%

Caracas FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Cabello at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.01 · 141 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Cabello attack 1.42 + Caracas FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Caracas FC attack 1.22 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Puerto Cabello scores more

38%

level

28%

Caracas FC scores more

33%

Puerto Cabello at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Puerto Cabello will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff