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Caracas FC vs Puerto Cabello — Primera División 2018

Caracas FC
Caracas FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Puerto Cabello
Puerto Cabello
9/4/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 7Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

Caracas FC45%
×Draw27%
Puerto Cabello28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caracas FC
1.37
Puerto Cabello
1.02

Caracas FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 143 away

creates per match

Caracas FC
1.58
Puerto Cabello
1.02

allows per match

Caracas FC
1.01
Puerto Cabello
1.16

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par
Puerto Cabello+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Puerto Cabello →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw
72%
Caracas FC or Puerto Cabello
73%
Draw or Puerto Cabello
55%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+
21%
Puerto Cabello wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals
75%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
40%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
16%
Puerto Cabello 1+ goals
64%
Puerto Cabello 2+ goals
27%
Puerto Cabello 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)
62%
Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

Puerto Cabello away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.16 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.58 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.37

Puerto Cabello attack 1.02 + Caracas FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Caracas FC scores more
45%
level
27%
Puerto Cabello scores more
28%

Caracas FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Caracas FC 0–0 Puerto Cabello

Caracas FC and Puerto Cabello drew 0-0 in Primera División on September 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte in Caracas.