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Puente Genil vs Pozoblanco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Puente Genil
Puente Genil
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Pozoblanco
Pozoblanco
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 32Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Puente Genil52%
×Draw25%
Pozoblanco24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puente Genil
1.63
Pozoblanco
1.02

Puente Genil creates 60% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 109 away

creates per match

Puente Genil
1.68
Pozoblanco
0.94

allows per match

Puente Genil
1.10
Pozoblanco
1.58

finishing

Puente Genil+0.00on par
Pozoblanco+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puente Genil ↓

Pozoblanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Puente Genil or draw
76%
Puente Genil or Pozoblanco
75%
Draw or Pozoblanco
48%

Winning margin

Puente Genil wins by 2+
27%
Pozoblanco wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Puente Genil 1+ goals
80%
Puente Genil 2+ goals
48%
Puente Genil 3+ goals
22%
Pozoblanco 1+ goals
64%
Pozoblanco 2+ goals
27%
Pozoblanco 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Puente Genil (draw refunded)
68%
Pozoblanco (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puente Genil at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 93 matches

Pozoblanco away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.58 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puente Genil attack 1.68 + Pozoblanco defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

Pozoblanco attack 0.94 + Puente Genil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Puente Genil scores more
52%
level
25%
Pozoblanco scores more
24%

Puente Genil at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Puente Genil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Puente Genil 3–3 Pozoblanco

Puente Genil and Pozoblanco drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario in Puente Genil.