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Pozoblanco vs Puente Genil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Pozoblanco
Pozoblanco
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Puente Genil
Puente Genil
12/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 15Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Pozoblanco40%
×Draw27%
Puente Genil33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozoblanco
1.34
Puente Genil
1.19

Pozoblanco creates 13% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 92 away

creates per match

Pozoblanco
1.45
Puente Genil
1.33

allows per match

Pozoblanco
1.05
Puente Genil
1.23

finishing

Pozoblanco+0.00on par
Puente Genil+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozoblanco ↓

Puente Genil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pozoblanco or draw
67%
Pozoblanco or Puente Genil
73%
Draw or Puente Genil
60%

Winning margin

Pozoblanco wins by 2+
18%
Puente Genil wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pozoblanco 1+ goals
74%
Pozoblanco 2+ goals
39%
Pozoblanco 3+ goals
15%
Puente Genil 1+ goals
70%
Puente Genil 2+ goals
33%
Puente Genil 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pozoblanco (draw refunded)
55%
Puente Genil (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozoblanco at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Puente Genil away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.23 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozoblanco attack 1.45 + Puente Genil defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Puente Genil attack 1.33 + Pozoblanco defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pozoblanco scores more
40%
level
27%
Puente Genil scores more
33%

Pozoblanco at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pozoblanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pozoblanco vs Puente Genil

Pozoblanco beat Puente Genil 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco in Pozoblanco.