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Puente Genil vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Puente Genil
Puente Genil
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
La Palma
La Palma
T. Montenegro 28'
Salva Vegas 9'
Andrés Pavón 46'
9/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Puente Genil53%
×Draw24%
La Palma22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puente Genil
1.67
La Palma
0.99

Puente Genil creates 69% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 48 away

creates per match

Puente Genil
1.68
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Puente Genil
1.10
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Puente Genil+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puente Genil ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Puente Genil or draw
78%
Puente Genil or La Palma
76%
Draw or La Palma
47%

Winning margin

Puente Genil wins by 2+
29%
La Palma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Puente Genil 1+ goals
81%
Puente Genil 2+ goals
50%
Puente Genil 3+ goals
23%
La Palma 1+ goals
63%
La Palma 2+ goals
26%
La Palma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Puente Genil (draw refunded)
70%
La Palma (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puente Genil at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 93 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puente Genil attack 1.68 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

La Palma attack 0.88 + Puente Genil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Puente Genil scores more
53%
level
24%
La Palma scores more
22%

Puente Genil at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Puente Genil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Salva Vegas
28'
T. Montenegro
46'
Bouba Ba← Pedro Juan
46'
Andrés Pavón
61'
Hassan Keita← Isma
61'
Fernando López← T. Montenegro
61'
Juanfran← Mario
74'
Álvaro Fernández← Gonzalo del Castillo
77'
Manuel Pablo← Mario Sánchez
82'
Álvarito← Omar
82'
Rafa Navarro← Antonio Mesa
88'
Juanje Cubero← A. Araiza
Puente
La
Marco Montaño
Montaño
Antonio Mesa
▼
Mesa
Carlos Martínez
Martínez
Juan Aguilar
Aguilar
Pedro Juan
▼
Juan
Teté
Teté
Andrés Pavón
⚽
Pavón
Alejandro Pérez
Pérez
Gonzalo del Castillo
▼
Castillo
Omar
▼
Omar
Zaca
Zaca
Christian López
López
Edu Chía
Chía
Juanjo Carmona
Carmona
Mario Sánchez
▼
Sánchez
Jonathan
Jonathan
Salva Vegas
⚽
Vegas
Mario
▼
Mario
Fernando Rodríguez
Rodríguez
A. Araiza
▼
Araiza
T. Montenegro
⚽
▼
Montenegr
Isma
▼
Isma
Juanmi Puentenueva
Manager: Juanmi Puentenueva
61'▲Hassan Keita←▼Isma
61'▲Fernando López←▼T. Montenegro
61'▲Juanfran←▼Mario
77'▲Manuel Pablo←▼Mario Sánchez
88'▲Juanje Cubero←▼A. Araiza

Puente Genil substitutes

KeitaLópezJuanfranPabloCubero
Nacho Molina
Manager: Nacho Molina
46'▲Bouba Ba←▼Pedro Juan
74'▲Álvaro Fernández←▼Gonzalo del Castillo
82'▲Álvarito←▼Omar
82'▲Rafa Navarro←▼Antonio Mesa

La Palma substitutes

BaFernándezÁlvaritoNavarro

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Puente Genil 2–1 La Palma

Puente Genil beat La Palma 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 17, 2023.

Goals: Salva Vegas (9'), T. Montenegro (28'), Andrés Pavón (46').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario in Puente Genil.