La Palma 4–1 Puente Genil: Result & Stats

La Palma

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Puente Genil

S. Chetouan 89'

Álex Sánchez 68'

Zaca 58'

Omar 29'

Jairo Morillas 66'

1/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 19Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

La Palma36%

×Draw26%

Puente Genil37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La PalmaExpected goals in this matchPuente Genil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.31

La Palma

1.29

Puente Genil

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 92 away

1.35

creates per match

1.33

1.29

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

La Palma

1.35

Puente Genil

1.33

allows per match

La Palma

1.29

Puente Genil

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Palma+0.00on par

Puente Genil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Palma ↓

Puente Genil →

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

La Palma or draw

63%

La Palma or Puente Genil

74%

Draw or Puente Genil

64%

Winning margin

La Palma wins by 2+

16%

Puente Genil wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

La Palma 1+ goals

72%

La Palma 2+ goals

37%

La Palma 3+ goals

14%

Puente Genil 1+ goals

73%

Puente Genil 2+ goals

38%

Puente Genil 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

La Palma (draw refunded)

49%

Puente Genil (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Palma at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Puente Genil away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.23 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Palma attack 1.35 + Puente Genil defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Puente Genil attack 1.33 + La Palma defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

La Palma scores more

36%

level

26%

Puente Genil scores more

37%

Puente Genil at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Puente Genil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Omar

46'

Rafa Navarro← Carlos Martínez

46'

Juanjo Carmona← Sergio Guichard

58'

Zaca

62'

Joaquín García← Mario Sánchez

62'

Juanfran← Álvaro Pérez

62'

Manuel Pablo← A. Araiza

66'

Jairo Morillas

68'

S. Chetouan← Pedro Juan

68'

Y. Nwatsock← Álex Sánchez

68'

Álex Sánchez

76'

Juan Benítez← Zaca

85'

Bouba Ba← Álvaro Fernández

85'

Fernando Rodríguez← Mario

89'

Puente

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Sánchez

⚽

▼

Zaca

Manager: Nacho Molina

46'▲Rafa Navarro←▼Carlos Martínez

68'▲S. Chetouan←▼Pedro Juan

68'▲Y. Nwatsock←▼Álex Sánchez

76'▲Juan Benítez←▼Zaca

85'▲Bouba Ba←▼Álvaro Fernández

La Palma substitutes

NavarroChetouanNwatsockBenítezBa

Manager: Juanmi Puentenueva

46'▲Juanjo Carmona←▼Sergio Guichard

62'▲Joaquín García←▼Mario Sánchez

62'▲Juanfran←▼Álvaro Pérez

62'▲Manuel Pablo←▼A. Araiza

85'▲Fernando Rodríguez←▼Mario

Puente Genil substitutes

CarmonaGarcíaJuanfranPabloRodríguez