Puente Genil 2–0 Atlético Espeleño: Result & Stats

Puente Genil

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Atlético Espeleño

2/2/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 20Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Puente Genil56%

×Draw23%

Atlético Espeleño21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puente GenilExpected goals in this matchAtlético Espeleño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.01

Puente Genil

1.79

Atlético Espeleño

1.01

Puente Genil creates 77% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 49 away

1.68

creates per match

0.92

1.10

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Puente Genil

1.68

Atlético Espeleño

0.92

allows per match

Puente Genil

1.10

Atlético Espeleño

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puente Genil+0.00on par

Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puente Genil ↓

Atlético Espeleño →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Puente Genil or draw

79%

Puente Genil or Atlético Espeleño

77%

Draw or Atlético Espeleño

44%

Winning margin

Puente Genil wins by 2+

31%

Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+

Team goals

Puente Genil 1+ goals

83%

Puente Genil 2+ goals

53%

Puente Genil 3+ goals

26%

Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals

64%

Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals

27%

Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Puente Genil (draw refunded)

72%

Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Puente Genil at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 93 matches

Atlético Espeleño away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.90 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Puente Genil attack 1.68 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.79

Atlético Espeleño attack 0.92 + Puente Genil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Puente Genil scores more

56%

level

23%

Atlético Espeleño scores more

21%

Puente Genil at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Puente Genil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puente Genil vs Atlético Espeleño

Puente Genil beat Atlético Espeleño 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario in Puente Genil.

Puente Genil vs Atlético Espeleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Puente Genil vs Atlético Espeleño