Atlético Espeleño 3–4 Puente Genil: Result & Stats

Atlético Espeleño

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Puente Genil

9/22/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 3Campo de Fútbol Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Atlético Espeleño38%

×Draw27%

Puente Genil36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético EspeleñoExpected goals in this matchPuente Genil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.25

Atlético Espeleño

1.29

Puente Genil

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 92 away

1.35

creates per match

1.33

1.16

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Atlético Espeleño

1.35

Puente Genil

1.33

allows per match

Atlético Espeleño

1.16

Puente Genil

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Puente Genil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Espeleño ↓

Puente Genil →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Espeleño or draw

64%

Atlético Espeleño or Puente Genil

73%

Draw or Puente Genil

62%

Winning margin

Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+

17%

Puente Genil wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals

72%

Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals

37%

Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals

14%

Puente Genil 1+ goals

71%

Puente Genil 2+ goals

36%

Puente Genil 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)

51%

Puente Genil (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Espeleño at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

Puente Genil away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.23 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Espeleño attack 1.35 + Puente Genil defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Puente Genil attack 1.33 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlético Espeleño scores more

38%

level

27%

Puente Genil scores more

36%

Atlético Espeleño at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Espeleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Espeleño vs Puente Genil

Puente Genil beat Atlético Espeleño 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal in Espiel.

Atlético Espeleño vs Puente Genil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Espeleño vs Puente Genil