Puebla 1–0 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Puebla

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Santos Laguna

S. Ormeno 54'

5/24/2021

Liga MX · Clausura - Semi-finalsEstadio Cuauhtémoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Puebla44%

×Draw25%

Santos Laguna31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PueblaExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.28

Puebla

1.57

Santos Laguna

1.28

Puebla creates 23% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 142 away

1.27

creates per match

1.10

1.46

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Puebla

1.27

Santos Laguna

1.10

allows per match

Puebla

1.46

Santos Laguna

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Puebla or draw

69%

Puebla or Santos Laguna

75%

Draw or Santos Laguna

56%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+

22%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals

79%

Puebla 2+ goals

46%

Puebla 3+ goals

21%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

72%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

37%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)

59%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.46 · 139 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.88 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.27 + Santos Laguna defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Santos Laguna attack 1.10 + Puebla defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Puebla scores more

44%

level

25%

Santos Laguna scores more

31%

Puebla at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Puebla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Israel Reyes

Puebla · D

7.9

Match Events

46'

D. Aguilar← M. Araujo

46'

J. Segovia← Lucas Jaques

54'

S. Ormeno↳ C. Tabo

56'

C. Tabo← A. Escoto

66'

A. Preciado← A. Ibarguen

72'

O. Fernandez← G. Martinez

76'

E. Aguirre← H. Rodriguez

76'

J. Otero← J. A. Ocejo Zazueta

76'

D. Alvarez← G. Ferrareis

85'

87'

90+6'

90+10'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PueblaSantos

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots7

9Corners1

12Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots7

4On Target3

7Off Target4

6Blocked0

11Inside Box3

6Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

446Total Passes299

313Accurate Passes197

70%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1