Puebla 1–1 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Puebla

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Santos Laguna

P. González 20'

J. Correa 26'

1/19/2019

Liga MX · Clausura - 3Estadio Cuauhtemoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Puebla44%

×Draw25%

Santos Laguna31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PueblaExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.28

Puebla

1.57

Santos Laguna

1.28

Puebla creates 23% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 144 away

1.27

creates per match

1.10

1.46

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Puebla

1.27

Santos Laguna

1.10

allows per match

Puebla

1.46

Santos Laguna

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Puebla or draw

69%

Puebla or Santos Laguna

75%

Draw or Santos Laguna

56%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+

22%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals

79%

Puebla 2+ goals

46%

Puebla 3+ goals

21%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

72%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

37%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)

59%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.46 · 139 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.87 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.27 + Santos Laguna defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.57

Santos Laguna attack 1.10 + Puebla defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Puebla scores more

44%

level

25%

Santos Laguna scores more

31%

Puebla at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Puebla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Jesús Rodríguez

Puebla · G

8.3

Match Events

20'

26'

45'

46'

58'

F. Acuña← M. Alustiza

61'

B. Lozano← B. Garnica

69'

G. Arteaga← A. Preciado

78'

U. Rivas← J. Correa

82'

J. Guerrero← O. Fernández

90'

Pablo González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PueblaSantos

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots23

2Corners8

9Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots23

3On Target9

8Off Target10

3Blocked4

6Inside Box14

8Outside Box9

Passing

46%Possession54%

351Total Passes397

267Accurate Passes327

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

8Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1

Liga MX: Puebla 1–1 Santos Laguna

Puebla and Santos Laguna drew 1-1 in Liga MX on January 19, 2019.

Goals: P. González (20'), J. Correa (26').

Santos Laguna controlled possession (54%) and registered 23 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Cuauhtemoc in Puebla.

Puebla vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga MX: Puebla 1–1 Santos Laguna