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Puebla vs Monarcas — Liga MX 2026

Puebla
Puebla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Monarcas
Monarcas
D. Arreola 51'
M. Osuna 45+3' (pen)
4/6/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 13Estadio Cuauhtemoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Puebla37%
×Draw25%
Monarcas38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puebla
1.38
Monarcas
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 140 home / 40 away

creates per match

Puebla
1.25
Monarcas
1.35

allows per match

Puebla
1.45
Monarcas
1.50

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par
Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

Monarcas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Puebla or draw
62%
Puebla or Monarcas
75%
Draw or Monarcas
63%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+
17%
Monarcas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals
75%
Puebla 2+ goals
40%
Puebla 3+ goals
16%
Monarcas 1+ goals
75%
Monarcas 2+ goals
41%
Monarcas 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)
49%
Monarcas (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.45 · 140 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.25 + Monarcas defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Monarcas attack 1.35 + Puebla defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Puebla scores more
37%
level
25%
Monarcas scores more
38%

Monarcas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
É. FloresMonarcasMonarcas · F
7.5

Match Events

14'
Pedro Goulart
22'
Yohandry Orozco
45+3'
M. OsunaPenalty
46'
A. Chumacero← Y. Orozco
46'
M. Alustiza← Pedro
51'
D. Arreola↳ M. Alustiza
52'
R. Sandoval← C. Ramírez
67'
L. Haquin← D. Arreola
72'
M. Sansores← R. Sandoval
90'
Mario Osuna
90'
J. Valadéz← S. Ferreira

Possession

51%Puebla

Shots

13Puebla

Pass accuracy

51%Puebla

Statistics

PueblaMonarcas
Overview
51%Possession49%
13Total Shots15
5Corners6
13Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots15
4On Target6
6Off Target5
3Blocked4
5Inside Box7
8Outside Box8
Passing
51%Possession49%
383Total Passes364
307Accurate Passes276
80%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Liga MX: Puebla 1–1 Monarcas

Puebla and Monarcas drew 1-1 in Liga MX on April 6, 2019.

Goals: M. Osuna (45+3' pen), D. Arreola (51').

Puebla controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Cuauhtemoc in Puebla.