Monarcas 3–2 Puebla: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Monarcas

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Puebla

F. Aristeguieta 70'

M. Sansores 63', 1'

D. Abella 50'

C. Marrugo 21'

11/9/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 18Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Monarcas45%

×Draw25%

Puebla30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonarcasExpected goals in this matchPuebla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.25

Monarcas

1.57

Puebla

1.25

Monarcas creates 26% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 145 away

1.49

creates per match

1.06

1.44

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Monarcas

1.49

Puebla

1.06

allows per match

Monarcas

1.44

Puebla

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par

Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Puebla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw

70%

Monarcas or Puebla

75%

Draw or Puebla

55%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+

23%

Puebla wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals

79%

Monarcas 2+ goals

46%

Monarcas 3+ goals

21%

Puebla 1+ goals

71%

Puebla 2+ goals

36%

Puebla 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)

60%

Puebla (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 41 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.66 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.49 + Puebla defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.57

Puebla attack 1.06 + Monarcas defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Monarcas scores more

45%

level

25%

Puebla scores more

30%

Monarcas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

L. Mendoza

Monarcas · M

8.4

Match Events

1'

M. Sansores↳ R. Millar

21'

C. Marrugo

50'

D. Abella↳ J. Zárate

59'

Christian Tabó

62'

L. Cavallini← A. Tabó

63'

M. Sansores↳ L. Mendoza

64'

I. Vázquez← A. Chumacero

69'

F. Aristeguieta← S. Ferreira

70'

F. Aristeguieta↳ L. Mendoza

74'

J. Zavala← C. Marrugo

76'

Gabriel Achilier

79'

M. Osuna← M. Sansores

80'

82'

87'

90'

90+2'

C. Ramírez← L. Mendoza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonarcasPuebla

Overview

71%Possession29%

19Total Shots10

10Corners1

12Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots10

7On Target4

11Off Target3

1Blocked3

14Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

71%Possession29%

548Total Passes222

481Accurate Passes144

88%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0