Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas: Preview & Prediction

Puebla

Preview

01:00

Guadalajara Chivas

8/1/2026

Liga MX · Apertura - 3

Big match

44%

Guadalajara Chivas

model favours

31%25%44%

Puebla score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Puebla31%

×Draw25%

Guadalajara Chivas44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PueblaExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara Chivas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.50

Puebla

1.22

Guadalajara Chivas

1.50

Guadalajara Chivas creates 23% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.31

creates per match

1.48

1.51

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Puebla

1.31

Guadalajara Chivas

1.48

allows per match

Puebla

1.51

Guadalajara Chivas

1.13

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Puebla-0.14scores less

Guadalajara Chivas-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Puebla or draw

56%

Puebla or Guadalajara Chivas

75%

Draw or Guadalajara Chivas

69%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+

13%

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals

70%

Puebla 2+ goals

34%

Puebla 3+ goals

12%

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

78%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

44%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)

41%

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.51 · 6 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.13 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.31 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.48 + Puebla defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Puebla scores more

31%

level

25%

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

44%

Guadalajara Chivas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Puebla raise their game against the top half — 28% wins vs the upper half, only 24% vs the lower
Puebla sit 17, Guadalajara Chivas 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Puebla

Balanced

Guadalajara Chivas

Defensively solid

47%Possession52%

77%Pass accuracy81%

12.2Shots13.7

1.08xGBiggest gap1.46

PueblaGuadalajara Chivas

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3

Puebla

1

Draws

6

Guadalajara Chivas

Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 30%

0–50–20–11–02–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Puebla

LWWLW

Chivas

LDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Puebla face Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with Puebla hosting Guadalajara Chivas. Match starts August 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Puebla face Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)