Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 Puebla: Result & Stats

Guadalajara Chivas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Puebla

É. Gutiérrez 37'

4/16/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 16Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas48%

×Draw26%

Puebla26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalajara ChivasExpected goals in this matchPuebla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.06

Guadalajara Chivas

1.53

Puebla

1.06

Guadalajara Chivas creates 44% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 145 away

1.40

creates per match

1.06

1.05

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.40

Puebla

1.06

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.05

Puebla

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Puebla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw

74%

Guadalajara Chivas or Puebla

74%

Draw or Puebla

52%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

24%

Puebla wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

78%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

45%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

20%

Puebla 1+ goals

65%

Puebla 2+ goals

29%

Puebla 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

65%

Puebla (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 149 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.66 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.40 + Puebla defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.53

Puebla attack 1.06 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

48%

level

26%

Puebla scores more

26%

Guadalajara Chivas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

G. Sepúlveda

Guadalajara Chivas · D

8.2

Match Events

32'

Gustavo Ferrareis

37'

É. Gutiérrez↳ M. Gómez

46'

R. Castillo← Jorge Rodríguez

46'

F. Waller← J. Fedorco

58'

Efrain Orona

62'

C. Cowell← H. Camberos

62'

P. González← E. Orona

63'

J. Hernández← A. Pulido

66'

A. Mozo← M. Gómez

69'

Teun Wilke

70'

Y. Padilla← F. Beltrán

70'

R. González← T. Wilke

79'

D. Paz← F. Moyano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuadalajaraPuebla

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots11

4Corners7

7Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots11

3On Target3

7Off Target4

3Blocked4

6Inside Box4

7Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

483Total Passes397

427Accurate Passes351

88%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Guadalajara Chivas vs Puebla

Guadalajara Chivas beat Puebla 1-0 in Liga MX on April 16, 2025.

Goals: É. Gutiérrez (37').

Guadalajara Chivas controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio AKRON in Zapopan.

Guadalajara Chivas vs Puebla — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Guadalajara Chivas vs Puebla