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Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2026

Puebla
Puebla
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
10/26/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Puebla31%
×Draw25%
Guadalajara Chivas44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puebla
1.22
Guadalajara Chivas
1.50

Guadalajara Chivas creates 23% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Puebla
1.31
Guadalajara Chivas
1.48

allows per match

Puebla
1.51
Guadalajara Chivas
1.13

finishing

Puebla-0.14scores less
Guadalajara Chivas-0.18scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Puebla or draw
56%
Puebla or Guadalajara Chivas
75%
Draw or Guadalajara Chivas
69%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+
13%
Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals
70%
Puebla 2+ goals
34%
Puebla 3+ goals
12%
Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
78%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
44%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)
41%
Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.51 · 6 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.13 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.31 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.48 + Puebla defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Puebla scores more
31%
level
25%
Guadalajara Chivas scores more
44%

Guadalajara Chivas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas

Puebla beat Guadalajara Chivas 1-0 in Liga MX on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Cuauhtémoc in Puebla.