Puebla 2–0 Club Tijuana: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Puebla

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Club Tijuana

R. Marín 82'

E. Gómez 29' (pen)

2/22/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 8Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Puebla52%

×Draw23%

Club Tijuana26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PueblaExpected goals in this matchClub Tijuana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.24

Puebla

1.85

Club Tijuana

1.24

Puebla creates 49% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.31

creates per match

0.97

1.51

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Puebla

1.31

Club Tijuana

0.97

allows per match

Puebla

1.51

Club Tijuana

2.40

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Puebla-0.14scores less

Club Tijuana+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

Club Tijuana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Puebla or draw

74%

Puebla or Club Tijuana

77%

Draw or Club Tijuana

48%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+

29%

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals

84%

Puebla 2+ goals

55%

Puebla 3+ goals

28%

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

71%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

35%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)

67%

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.51 · 6 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.31 + Club Tijuana defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.85

Club Tijuana attack 0.97 + Puebla defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Puebla scores more

52%

level

23%

Club Tijuana scores more

26%

Puebla at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Puebla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Efraín Álvarez

Club Tijuana · M

7.9

Match Events

20'

Joe Corona

23'

Unai Bilbao

27'

Aarón Mejía

29'

E. GómezPenalty

45+1'

Jesús Rivas

46'

R. Franco← Unai Bilbao

46'

I. Tona← A. Mejía

46'

J. Fernández← Joe Corona

67'

G. Mora← F. Contreras

67'

K. Castañeda← S. Nicholson

72'

F. Waller← R. Castillo

75'

Jackson Porozo

82'

R. Marín↳ B. Angulo

88'

Brayan Angulo

90+3'

Gustavo Ferrareis← J. Rivas

90+3'

A. Herrera← R. Marín

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PueblaClub

Overview

34%Possession66%

15Total Shots18

3Corners5

20Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots18

4On Target4

5Off Target12

6Blocked2

8Inside Box7

7Outside Box11

Passing

34%Possession66%

242Total Passes472

165Accurate Passes398

68%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls11

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0