Club Tijuana 2–1 Puebla: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Club Tijuana

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Puebla

C. González 3 90+13'

Joe Corona 60'

E. Gularte 8'

11/11/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - 17Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 141+ matches

Club Tijuana49%

×Draw25%

Puebla26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club TijuanaExpected goals in this matchPuebla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.10

Club Tijuana

1.60

Puebla

1.10

Club Tijuana creates 45% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 145 away

1.55

creates per match

1.06

1.14

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Club Tijuana

1.55

Puebla

1.06

allows per match

Club Tijuana

1.14

Puebla

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.00on par

Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

Puebla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw

74%

Club Tijuana or Puebla

75%

Draw or Puebla

51%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

25%

Puebla wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

80%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

47%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

22%

Puebla 1+ goals

67%

Puebla 2+ goals

30%

Puebla 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

65%

Puebla (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 141 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.66 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.55 + Puebla defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

Puebla attack 1.06 + Club Tijuana defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Club Tijuana scores more

49%

level

25%

Puebla scores more

26%

Club Tijuana at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Efraín Álvarez

Club Tijuana · F

8.6

Match Events

-5'

Brayan Angulo

8'

E. Gularte↳ L. Quiñones

29'

Raúl Zúñiga

46'

J. Pachuca← A. Herrera

49'

Jesús GómezGoal cancelled

54'

58'

59'

59'

59'

60'

Joe Corona↳ Efraín Álvarez

66'

Luis Quiñones

71'

E. Reynoso← Joe Corona

76'

Iván Tona

76'

Luis Quiñones

76'

Luis Quiñones

80'

A. Mejía← R. Fernández

84'

D. Álvarez← E. Gómez

90+4'

Miguel Jiménez

90'

Pablo González

90+12'

Daniel ÁlvarezGoal cancelled

90+2'

B. Angulo← F. Waller

90+2'

Á. Robles← P. González

90+13'

C. González 3↳ E. Reynoso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubPuebla

Overview

80%Possession20%

28Total Shots5

14Corners2

11Fouls14

Shots

28Total Shots5

11On Target2

11Off Target2

6Blocked1

16Inside Box5

12Outside Box0

Passing

80%Possession20%

715Total Passes178

633Accurate Passes83

89%Pass Accuracy47%

Goalkeeping

1Saves9

Discipline

11Fouls14

4Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Liga MX: Club Tijuana 2–1 Puebla

Club Tijuana beat Puebla 2-1 in Liga MX on November 11, 2024.

Goals: E. Gularte (8'), Joe Corona (60'), C. González 3 (90+13').

Club Tijuana controlled possession (80%) and registered 28 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Caliente in Tijuana.

Club Tijuana vs Puebla — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga MX: Club Tijuana 2–1 Puebla