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Puebla Calzada vs Castuera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Puebla Calzada
Puebla Calzada
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Castuera
Castuera
12/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 14Campo Fútbol Puebla de la Calzada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Puebla Calzada46%
×Draw26%
Castuera28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puebla Calzada
1.46
Castuera
1.07

Puebla Calzada creates 36% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Puebla Calzada
1.32
Castuera
0.88

allows per match

Puebla Calzada
1.26
Castuera
1.59

finishing

Puebla Calzada+0.00on par
Castuera+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla Calzada ↓

Castuera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Puebla Calzada or draw
72%
Puebla Calzada or Castuera
74%
Draw or Castuera
54%

Winning margin

Puebla Calzada wins by 2+
23%
Castuera wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Puebla Calzada 1+ goals
77%
Puebla Calzada 2+ goals
43%
Puebla Calzada 3+ goals
18%
Castuera 1+ goals
66%
Castuera 2+ goals
29%
Castuera 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Puebla Calzada (draw refunded)
62%
Castuera (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla Calzada at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Castuera away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla Calzada attack 1.32 + Castuera defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Castuera attack 0.88 + Puebla Calzada defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Puebla Calzada scores more
46%
level
26%
Castuera scores more
28%

Puebla Calzada at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Puebla Calzada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Puebla Calzada 2 – 0 Castuera

Puebla Calzada beat Castuera 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Fútbol Puebla de la Calzada in Puebla de la Calzada.