Castuera 1–2 Puebla Calzada: Result & Stats

Castuera

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Puebla Calzada

4/17/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 31Estadio Manuel Ruiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Castuera56%

×Draw23%

Puebla Calzada22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastueraExpected goals in this matchPuebla Calzada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.06

Castuera

1.85

Puebla Calzada

1.06

Castuera creates 75% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

1.91

creates per match

0.74

1.38

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Castuera

1.91

Puebla Calzada

0.74

allows per match

Castuera

1.38

Puebla Calzada

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castuera+0.00on par

Puebla Calzada+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castuera ↓

Puebla Calzada →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Castuera or draw

78%

Castuera or Puebla Calzada

77%

Draw or Puebla Calzada

44%

Winning margin

Castuera wins by 2+

32%

Puebla Calzada wins by 2+

Team goals

Castuera 1+ goals

84%

Castuera 2+ goals

55%

Castuera 3+ goals

28%

Puebla Calzada 1+ goals

65%

Puebla Calzada 2+ goals

29%

Puebla Calzada 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Castuera (draw refunded)

72%

Puebla Calzada (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castuera at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Puebla Calzada away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castuera attack 1.91 + Puebla Calzada defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.85

Puebla Calzada attack 0.74 + Castuera defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Castuera scores more

56%

level

23%

Puebla Calzada scores more

22%

Castuera at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Castuera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff