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Puch vs ÖTSU Hallein — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Puch
Puch
CANC
14:00
ÖTSU Hallein
ÖTSU Hallein
3/20/2021Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 14Waldstadion Puch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Puch27%
×Draw22%
ÖTSU Hallein51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puch
1.43
ÖTSU Hallein
2.03

ÖTSU Hallein creates 42% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 23 away

creates per match

Puch
1.43
ÖTSU Hallein
1.78

allows per match

Puch
2.28
ÖTSU Hallein
1.43

finishing

Puch+0.00on par
ÖTSU Hallein+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puch ↓

ÖTSU Hallein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Puch or draw
49%
Puch or ÖTSU Hallein
78%
Draw or ÖTSU Hallein
73%

Winning margin

Puch wins by 2+
12%
ÖTSU Hallein wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Puch 1+ goals
76%
Puch 2+ goals
42%
Puch 3+ goals
17%
ÖTSU Hallein 1+ goals
87%
ÖTSU Hallein 2+ goals
60%
ÖTSU Hallein 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Puch (draw refunded)
35%
ÖTSU Hallein (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puch at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.28 · 82 matches

ÖTSU Hallein away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puch attack 1.43 + ÖTSU Hallein defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.43

ÖTSU Hallein attack 1.78 + Puch defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Puch scores more
27%
level
22%
ÖTSU Hallein scores more
51%

ÖTSU Hallein at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "ÖTSU Hallein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Puch face ÖTSU Hallein (Landesliga - Salzburg)

Landesliga - Salzburg returns with Puch hosting ÖTSU Hallein. Match starts March 20, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Puch host ÖTSU Hallein at Waldstadion Puch.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.