ÖTSU Hallein 4–2 Puch: Result & Stats

ÖTSU Hallein

FT

4 – 2

Puch

9/29/2020

Landesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 1Thomas Stangassinger Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

ÖTSU Hallein58%

×Draw19%

Puch23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÖTSU HalleinExpected goals in this matchPuch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.56

ÖTSU Hallein

2.51

Puch

1.56

ÖTSU Hallein creates 61% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 84 away

2.54

creates per match

1.39

1.73

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

ÖTSU Hallein

2.54

Puch

1.39

allows per match

ÖTSU Hallein

1.73

Puch

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ÖTSU Hallein+0.00on par

Puch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÖTSU Hallein ↓

Puch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

ÖTSU Hallein or draw

77%

ÖTSU Hallein or Puch

81%

Draw or Puch

42%

Winning margin

ÖTSU Hallein wins by 2+

37%

Puch wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

ÖTSU Hallein 1+ goals

92%

ÖTSU Hallein 2+ goals

71%

ÖTSU Hallein 3+ goals

45%

Puch 1+ goals

79%

Puch 2+ goals

46%

Puch 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

ÖTSU Hallein (draw refunded)

71%

Puch (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ÖTSU Hallein at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Puch away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.48 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ÖTSU Hallein attack 2.54 + Puch defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.51

Puch attack 1.39 + ÖTSU Hallein defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

ÖTSU Hallein scores more

58%

level

19%

Puch scores more

23%

ÖTSU Hallein at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ÖTSU Hallein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff