PTT Rayong 2–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya: Result & Stats

PTT Rayong

FT

2 – 0

Nong Bua Pitchaya

9/12/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 27PTT Stadium (Rayong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

PTT Rayong51%

×Draw22%

Nong Bua Pitchaya27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PTT RayongExpected goals in this matchNong Bua Pitchaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.35

PTT Rayong

1.94

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.35

PTT Rayong creates 44% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 83 away

2.57

creates per match

1.34

1.36

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

PTT Rayong

2.57

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.34

allows per match

PTT Rayong

1.36

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PTT Rayong ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

PTT Rayong or draw

73%

PTT Rayong or Nong Bua Pitchaya

78%

Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya

49%

Winning margin

PTT Rayong wins by 2+

29%

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

PTT Rayong 1+ goals

86%

PTT Rayong 2+ goals

58%

PTT Rayong 3+ goals

30%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals

74%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals

39%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

PTT Rayong (draw refunded)

66%

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PTT Rayong at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PTT Rayong attack 2.57 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.94

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.34 + PTT Rayong defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

PTT Rayong scores more

51%

level

22%

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more

27%

PTT Rayong at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "PTT Rayong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff