Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nong Bua Pitchaya vs PTT Rayong — Thai League 2 2018

Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
FT
0 – 0
PTT Rayong
PTT Rayong
5/12/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 13Nong Bua Lam Phu Provincial Sport Stadium (Nong Bua Lam Phu, Mueang Nong Bua Lam Phu District)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya46%
×Draw26%
PTT Rayong28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.49
PTT Rayong
1.09

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 37% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 14 away

creates per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
2.05
PTT Rayong
1.29

allows per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
0.89
PTT Rayong
0.93

finishing

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par
PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓

PTT Rayong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw
72%
Nong Bua Pitchaya or PTT Rayong
74%
Draw or PTT Rayong
54%

Winning margin

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
23%
PTT Rayong wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
77%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
44%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
19%
PTT Rayong 1+ goals
66%
PTT Rayong 2+ goals
30%
PTT Rayong 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
63%
PTT Rayong (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

PTT Rayong away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 2.05 + PTT Rayong defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.49

PTT Rayong attack 1.29 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
46%
level
26%
PTT Rayong scores more
28%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs PTT Rayong

Nong Bua Pitchaya and PTT Rayong drew 0-0 in Thai League 2 on May 12, 2018.

The match was played at Nong Bua Lam Phu Provincial Sport Stadium (Nong Bua Lam Phu, Mueang Nong Bua Lam Phu District).