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PTT Rayong vs Lampang FC — Thai League 2 2018

PTT Rayong
PTT Rayong
FT
2 – 2
Lampang FC
Lampang FC
4/22/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 10PTT Stadium (Rayong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

PTT Rayong53%
×Draw21%
Lampang FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PTT Rayong
2.05
Lampang FC
1.38

PTT Rayong creates 49% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 102 away

creates per match

PTT Rayong
2.57
Lampang FC
1.39

allows per match

PTT Rayong
1.36
Lampang FC
1.54

finishing

PTT Rayong+0.00on par
Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PTT Rayong ↓

Lampang FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

PTT Rayong or draw
74%
PTT Rayong or Lampang FC
79%
Draw or Lampang FC
47%

Winning margin

PTT Rayong wins by 2+
31%
Lampang FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

PTT Rayong 1+ goals
87%
PTT Rayong 2+ goals
61%
PTT Rayong 3+ goals
33%
Lampang FC 1+ goals
75%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
40%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

PTT Rayong (draw refunded)
67%
Lampang FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PTT Rayong at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.54 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PTT Rayong attack 2.57 + Lampang FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.05

Lampang FC attack 1.39 + PTT Rayong defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

PTT Rayong scores more
53%
level
21%
Lampang FC scores more
26%

PTT Rayong at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "PTT Rayong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: PTT Rayong 2–2 Lampang FC

PTT Rayong and Lampang FC drew 2-2 in Thai League 2 on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at PTT Stadium (Rayong).