Lampang FC 1–0 PTT Rayong: Result & Stats

Lampang FC

FT

1 – 0

PTT Rayong

8/5/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 24Lampang Provincial Stadium (Lampang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lampang FC37%

×Draw28%

PTT Rayong35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lampang FCExpected goals in this matchPTT Rayong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.15

Lampang FC

1.21

PTT Rayong

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 14 away

1.48

creates per match

1.29

1.01

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Lampang FC

1.48

PTT Rayong

1.29

allows per match

Lampang FC

1.01

PTT Rayong

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par

PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

PTT Rayong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw

65%

Lampang FC or PTT Rayong

72%

Draw or PTT Rayong

63%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+

16%

PTT Rayong wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals

70%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

34%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

12%

PTT Rayong 1+ goals

68%

PTT Rayong 2+ goals

32%

PTT Rayong 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

52%

PTT Rayong (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 101 matches

PTT Rayong away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.48 + PTT Rayong defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.21

PTT Rayong attack 1.29 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lampang FC scores more

37%

level

28%

PTT Rayong scores more

35%

Lampang FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff