PTT Rayong 5–1 Krabi FC: Result & Stats

PTT Rayong

FT

5 – 1

Krabi FC

4/11/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 9PTT Stadium (Rayong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

PTT Rayong64%

×Draw19%

Krabi FC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PTT RayongExpected goals in this matchKrabi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.39

1.15

PTT Rayong

2.39

Krabi FC

1.15

PTT Rayong creates 108% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 48 away

2.57

creates per match

0.94

1.36

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

PTT Rayong

2.57

Krabi FC

0.94

allows per match

PTT Rayong

1.36

Krabi FC

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PTT Rayong ↓

Krabi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

PTT Rayong or draw

83%

PTT Rayong or Krabi FC

81%

Draw or Krabi FC

36%

Winning margin

PTT Rayong wins by 2+

42%

Krabi FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

PTT Rayong 1+ goals

91%

PTT Rayong 2+ goals

69%

PTT Rayong 3+ goals

42%

Krabi FC 1+ goals

68%

Krabi FC 2+ goals

32%

Krabi FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

PTT Rayong (draw refunded)

79%

Krabi FC (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PTT Rayong at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.21 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PTT Rayong attack 2.57 + Krabi FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.39

Krabi FC attack 0.94 + PTT Rayong defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

PTT Rayong scores more

64%

level

19%

Krabi FC scores more

17%

PTT Rayong at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "PTT Rayong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff