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Krabi FC vs PTT Rayong — Thai League 2 2018

Krabi FC
Krabi FC
FT
0 – 1
PTT Rayong
PTT Rayong
7/28/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 23Krabi Provincial Stadium (Krabi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Krabi FC30%
×Draw29%
PTT Rayong40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krabi FC
0.99
PTT Rayong
1.19

PTT Rayong creates 20% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 14 away

creates per match

Krabi FC
1.04
PTT Rayong
1.29

allows per match

Krabi FC
1.08
PTT Rayong
0.93

finishing

Krabi FC+0.00on par
PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krabi FC ↓

PTT Rayong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Krabi FC or draw
60%
Krabi FC or PTT Rayong
71%
Draw or PTT Rayong
70%

Winning margin

Krabi FC wins by 2+
11%
PTT Rayong wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Krabi FC 1+ goals
63%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
26%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
8%
PTT Rayong 1+ goals
70%
PTT Rayong 2+ goals
33%
PTT Rayong 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Krabi FC (draw refunded)
43%
PTT Rayong (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krabi FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

PTT Rayong away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krabi FC attack 1.04 + PTT Rayong defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

PTT Rayong attack 1.29 + Krabi FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Krabi FC scores more
30%
level
29%
PTT Rayong scores more
40%

PTT Rayong at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "PTT Rayong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Krabi FC 0–1 PTT Rayong

PTT Rayong beat Krabi FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on July 28, 2018.

The match was played at Krabi Provincial Stadium (Krabi).