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PTT Rayong vs Khonkaen — Thai League 2 2018

PTT Rayong
PTT Rayong
FT
1 – 4
Khonkaen
Khonkaen
7/22/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 22PTT Stadium (Rayong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

PTT Rayong58%
×Draw21%
Khonkaen21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PTT Rayong
2.11
Khonkaen
1.19

PTT Rayong creates 77% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 65 away

creates per match

PTT Rayong
2.57
Khonkaen
1.02

allows per match

PTT Rayong
1.36
Khonkaen
1.66

finishing

PTT Rayong+0.00on par
Khonkaen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PTT Rayong ↓

Khonkaen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

PTT Rayong or draw
79%
PTT Rayong or Khonkaen
79%
Draw or Khonkaen
42%

Winning margin

PTT Rayong wins by 2+
35%
Khonkaen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

PTT Rayong 1+ goals
88%
PTT Rayong 2+ goals
62%
PTT Rayong 3+ goals
35%
Khonkaen 1+ goals
70%
Khonkaen 2+ goals
33%
Khonkaen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

PTT Rayong (draw refunded)
74%
Khonkaen (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PTT Rayong at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Khonkaen away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PTT Rayong attack 2.57 + Khonkaen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.11

Khonkaen attack 1.02 + PTT Rayong defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

PTT Rayong scores more
58%
level
21%
Khonkaen scores more
21%

PTT Rayong at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "PTT Rayong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: PTT Rayong 1–4 Khonkaen

Khonkaen beat PTT Rayong 4-1 in Thai League 2 on July 22, 2018.

The match was played at PTT Stadium (Rayong).