Khonkaen 2–0 PTT Rayong: Result & Stats

Khonkaen

FT

2 – 0

PTT Rayong

4/7/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 8Khon Kaen Stadium (Khon Kaen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Khonkaen36%

×Draw28%

PTT Rayong36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhonkaenExpected goals in this matchPTT Rayong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

Khonkaen

1.19

PTT Rayong

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 14 away

1.45

creates per match

1.29

1.09

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Khonkaen

1.45

PTT Rayong

1.29

allows per match

Khonkaen

1.09

PTT Rayong

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par

PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

PTT Rayong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw

64%

Khonkaen or PTT Rayong

72%

Draw or PTT Rayong

64%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+

15%

PTT Rayong wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals

70%

Khonkaen 2+ goals

33%

Khonkaen 3+ goals

12%

PTT Rayong 1+ goals

70%

PTT Rayong 2+ goals

33%

PTT Rayong 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)

50%

PTT Rayong (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

PTT Rayong away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 1.45 + PTT Rayong defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.19

PTT Rayong attack 1.29 + Khonkaen defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Khonkaen scores more

36%

level

28%

PTT Rayong scores more

36%

Khonkaen at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff