PTT Rayong 6–1 Kasetsart FC: Result & Stats

PTT Rayong

FT

6 – 1

Kasetsart FC

8/11/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 25PTT Stadium (Rayong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

PTT Rayong62%

×Draw20%

Kasetsart FC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PTT RayongExpected goals in this matchKasetsart FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.12

PTT Rayong

2.21

Kasetsart FC

1.12

PTT Rayong creates 97% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 132 away

2.57

creates per match

0.88

1.36

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

PTT Rayong

2.57

Kasetsart FC

0.88

allows per match

PTT Rayong

1.36

Kasetsart FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PTT Rayong ↓

Kasetsart FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

PTT Rayong or draw

82%

PTT Rayong or Kasetsart FC

80%

Draw or Kasetsart FC

38%

Winning margin

PTT Rayong wins by 2+

39%

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

PTT Rayong 1+ goals

89%

PTT Rayong 2+ goals

65%

PTT Rayong 3+ goals

38%

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

67%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

31%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

PTT Rayong (draw refunded)

77%

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PTT Rayong at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PTT Rayong attack 2.57 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.21

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + PTT Rayong defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

PTT Rayong scores more

62%

level

20%

Kasetsart FC scores more

18%

PTT Rayong at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "PTT Rayong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff