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Kasetsart FC vs PTT Rayong — Thai League 2 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
1 – 2
PTT Rayong
PTT Rayong
4/29/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 11TOT Stadium Chaeng Wattana (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kasetsart FC33%
×Draw28%
PTT Rayong39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
1.13
PTT Rayong
1.25

PTT Rayong creates 11% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
1.32
PTT Rayong
1.29

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
1.21
PTT Rayong
0.93

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

PTT Rayong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
61%
Kasetsart FC or PTT Rayong
72%
Draw or PTT Rayong
67%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
13%
PTT Rayong wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
68%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
31%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
11%
PTT Rayong 1+ goals
71%
PTT Rayong 2+ goals
36%
PTT Rayong 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
46%
PTT Rayong (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

PTT Rayong away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + PTT Rayong defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

PTT Rayong attack 1.29 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
33%
level
28%
PTT Rayong scores more
39%

PTT Rayong at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "PTT Rayong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasetsart FC vs PTT Rayong

PTT Rayong beat Kasetsart FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on April 29, 2018.

The match was played at TOT Stadium Chaeng Wattana (Bangkok).