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PTT Rayong vs Chiangmai FC — Thai League 2 2018

PTT Rayong
PTT Rayong
FT
0 – 1
Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
5/27/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 15PTT Stadium (Rayong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

PTT Rayong53%
×Draw22%
Chiangmai FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PTT Rayong
1.98
Chiangmai FC
1.28

PTT Rayong creates 55% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 82 away

creates per match

PTT Rayong
2.57
Chiangmai FC
1.20

allows per match

PTT Rayong
1.36
Chiangmai FC
1.39

finishing

PTT Rayong+0.00on par
Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PTT Rayong ↓

Chiangmai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

PTT Rayong or draw
75%
PTT Rayong or Chiangmai FC
78%
Draw or Chiangmai FC
47%

Winning margin

PTT Rayong wins by 2+
31%
Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

PTT Rayong 1+ goals
86%
PTT Rayong 2+ goals
59%
PTT Rayong 3+ goals
31%
Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
72%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
37%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

PTT Rayong (draw refunded)
68%
Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PTT Rayong at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Chiangmai FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PTT Rayong attack 2.57 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.98

Chiangmai FC attack 1.20 + PTT Rayong defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

PTT Rayong scores more
53%
level
22%
Chiangmai FC scores more
25%

PTT Rayong at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "PTT Rayong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: PTT Rayong 0–1 Chiangmai FC

Chiangmai FC beat PTT Rayong 1-0 in Thai League 2 on May 27, 2018.

The match was played at PTT Stadium (Rayong).