Chiangmai FC 1–1 PTT Rayong: Result & Stats

Chiangmai FC

FT

1 – 1

PTT Rayong

9/22/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 29700th Anniversary Stadium (Chiang Mai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Chiangmai FC40%

×Draw27%

PTT Rayong33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chiangmai FCExpected goals in this matchPTT Rayong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.21

Chiangmai FC

1.35

PTT Rayong

1.21

Chiangmai FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 14 away

1.78

creates per match

1.29

1.12

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Chiangmai FC

1.78

PTT Rayong

1.29

allows per match

Chiangmai FC

1.12

PTT Rayong

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

PTT Rayong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw

67%

Chiangmai FC or PTT Rayong

73%

Draw or PTT Rayong

60%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+

18%

PTT Rayong wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals

74%

Chiangmai FC 2+ goals

39%

Chiangmai FC 3+ goals

15%

PTT Rayong 1+ goals

70%

PTT Rayong 2+ goals

34%

PTT Rayong 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)

54%

PTT Rayong (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

PTT Rayong away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 1.78 + PTT Rayong defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.35

PTT Rayong attack 1.29 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more

40%

level

27%

PTT Rayong scores more

33%

Chiangmai FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff