PSV Eindhoven 3–2 NAC Breda: Result & Stats

PSV Eindhoven

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

NAC Breda

R. Pepi 90+4'

G. Til 45+1', 35'

K. Kostorz 90+6'

L. Sauer 26'

1/25/2025

Eredivisie · Round 20Philips Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

PSV Eindhoven63%

×Draw19%

NAC Breda18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PSV EindhovenExpected goals in this matchNAC Breda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.15

PSV Eindhoven

2.31

NAC Breda

1.15

PSV Eindhoven creates 101% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 10 away

2.72

creates per match

1.29

1.00

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

PSV Eindhoven

2.72

NAC Breda

1.29

allows per match

PSV Eindhoven

1.00

NAC Breda

1.91

+0.50scores more than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

PSV Eindhoven+0.50scores more

NAC Breda-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Eindhoven ↓

NAC Breda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

PSV Eindhoven or draw

82%

PSV Eindhoven or NAC Breda

81%

Draw or NAC Breda

37%

Winning margin

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+

41%

NAC Breda wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals

90%

PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals

67%

PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals

40%

NAC Breda 1+ goals

68%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

32%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)

78%

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Eindhoven at home — creates 2.72, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.91 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Eindhoven attack 2.72 + NAC Breda defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.31

NAC Breda attack 1.29 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

PSV Eindhoven scores more

63%

level

19%

NAC Breda scores more

18%

PSV Eindhoven at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

G. Til

PSV Eindhoven · M

8.9

Match Events

26'

35'

45+4'

45+1'

55'

Saná Fernandes← Adam Kaied

69'

I. Saibari← G. Til

78'

R. Paula← L. Sauer

79'

A. Obispo← O. Boscagli

79'

E. Bajraktarević← J. Bakayoko

79'

R. Pepi← L. de Jong

87'

K. Kostorz← E. Ómarsson

89'

Boy Kemper

90+4'

R. Pepi↳ I. Saibari

90+6'

K. Kostorz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PSVNAC

Overview

65%Possession35%

23Total Shots20

2.68Expected Goals (xG)0.96

10Corners2

6Fouls12

Shots

23Total Shots20

10On Target5

8Off Target9

5Blocked6

20Inside Box11

3Outside Box9

Passing

65%Possession35%

616Total Passes339

531Accurate Passes251

86%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

-0.22Goals Prevented-0.22

Discipline

6Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

Eredivisie: PSV Eindhoven 3–2 NAC Breda

PSV Eindhoven beat NAC Breda 3-2 in Eredivisie on January 25, 2025.

Goals: L. Sauer (26'), G. Til (35', 45+1'), R. Pepi (90+4'), K. Kostorz (90+6').

PSV Eindhoven controlled possession (65%) and registered 23 shots to 20.

The match was played at Philips Stadion in Eindhoven.

PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda — Eredivisie 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eredivisie: PSV Eindhoven 3–2 NAC Breda