NAC Breda 0–3 PSV Eindhoven: Result & Stats

NAC Breda

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

PSV Eindhoven

J. Bakayoko 65'

I. Saibari 33'

R. Pepi 21'

11/9/2024

Eredivisie · Round 12Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

NAC Breda22%

×Draw24%

PSV Eindhoven54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAC BredaExpected goals in this matchPSV Eindhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.76

NAC Breda

1.04

PSV Eindhoven

1.76

PSV Eindhoven creates 69% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 42 away

1.10

creates per match

2.22

1.30

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

NAC Breda

1.10

PSV Eindhoven

2.22

allows per match

NAC Breda

1.30

PSV Eindhoven

0.97

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.66scores more than expected

finishing

NAC Breda-0.60scores less

PSV Eindhoven+0.66scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

PSV Eindhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw

46%

NAC Breda or PSV Eindhoven

76%

Draw or PSV Eindhoven

78%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+

8%

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals

65%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

28%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

9%

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals

83%

PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals

52%

PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

29%

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven away — creates 2.22, concedes 0.97 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.10 + PSV Eindhoven defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

PSV Eindhoven attack 2.22 + NAC Breda defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

NAC Breda scores more

22%

level

24%

PSV Eindhoven scores more

54%

PSV Eindhoven at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

I. Saibari

PSV Eindhoven · M

9.2

Match Events

5'

21'

32'

33'

34'

35'

62'

L. Mol← R. Paula

62'

K. Kostorz← M. Garbett

62'

D. Janošek← C. Leemans

65'

J. Bakayoko

71'

C. Driouech← N. Lang

71'

I. Perišić← J. Bakayoko

71'

L. de Jong← R. Pepi

81'

C. Staring← F. Oldrup Jensen

81'

Saná Fernandes← L. Sauer

83'

I. Babadi← M. Tillman

83'

R. Ledezma← R. Karsdorp

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NACPSV

Overview

30%Possession70%

11Total Shots20

0.49Expected Goals (xG)2.24

5Corners9

13Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots20

3On Target10

6Off Target3

2Blocked7

5Inside Box17

6Outside Box3

Passing

30%Possession70%

274Total Passes649

183Accurate Passes554

67%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

0.40Goals Prevented0.40

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Match Recap: NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven beat NAC Breda 3-0 in Eredivisie on November 9, 2024.

Goals: R. Pepi (21'), I. Saibari (33'), J. Bakayoko (65').

PSV Eindhoven controlled possession (70%) and registered 20 shots to 11.

The match was played at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda.

NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven — Eredivisie 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven