PSV Eindhoven 1–2 Inter: Result & Stats

PSV Eindhoven

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Inter

P. Rosario 27'

M. Icardi 60'

R. Nainggolan 44'

10/3/2018

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 2Philips Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

PSV Eindhoven40%

×Draw24%

Inter36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PSV EindhovenExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.52

PSV Eindhoven

1.61

Inter

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

2.07

creates per match

1.48

1.57

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

PSV Eindhoven

2.07

Inter

1.48

allows per match

PSV Eindhoven

1.57

Inter

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PSV Eindhoven+0.00on par

Inter+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Eindhoven ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

PSV Eindhoven or draw

64%

PSV Eindhoven or Inter

76%

Draw or Inter

60%

Winning margin

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+

20%

Inter wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals

80%

PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals

48%

PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals

22%

Inter 1+ goals

78%

Inter 2+ goals

45%

Inter 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)

53%

Inter (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Eindhoven at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Inter away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Eindhoven attack 2.07 + Inter defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.61

Inter attack 1.48 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

PSV Eindhoven scores more

40%

level

24%

Inter scores more

36%

PSV Eindhoven at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Vecino

Inter · M

7.9

Match Events

27'

P. Rosario↳ H. Lozano

41'

44'

45'

60'

75'

86'

86'

Borja Valero← R. Nainggolan

90+1'

A. Candreva← M. Politano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PSVInter

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots24

5Corners6

12Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots24

4On Target8

6Off Target8

2Blocked8

7Inside Box15

5Outside Box9

Passing

41%Possession59%

371Total Passes551

306Accurate Passes487

82%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls12

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1