Inter 1–1 PSV Eindhoven: Result & Stats

Inter

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

PSV Eindhoven

M. Icardi 73'

H. Lozano 13'

12/11/2018

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 6San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Inter46%

×Draw25%

PSV Eindhoven29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InterExpected goals in this matchPSV Eindhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.19

Inter

1.58

PSV Eindhoven

1.19

Inter creates 33% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

1.35

creates per match

1.33

1.04

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Inter

1.35

PSV Eindhoven

1.33

allows per match

Inter

1.04

PSV Eindhoven

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter+0.00on par

PSV Eindhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

PSV Eindhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Inter or draw

71%

Inter or PSV Eindhoven

75%

Draw or PSV Eindhoven

54%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+

24%

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals

79%

Inter 2+ goals

47%

Inter 3+ goals

21%

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals

70%

PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals

33%

PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)

62%

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

PSV Eindhoven away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 1.35 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.58

PSV Eindhoven attack 1.33 + Inter defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Inter scores more

46%

level

25%

PSV Eindhoven scores more

29%

Inter at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Zoet

PSV Eindhoven · G

8.2

Match Events

13'

H. Lozano↳ S. Bergwijn

44'

Marcelo Brozović

52'

Jeroen Zoet

56'

K. Baldé← A. Candreva

65'

M. Sadílek← É. Gutiérrez

69'

Lautaro Martínez← K. Asamoah

71'

Matteo Politano

71'

Steven Bergwijn

71'

D. Malen← S. Bergwijn

73'

M. Icardi↳ M. Politano

83'

Š. Vrsaljko← M. Politano

86'

Michal Sadílek

90'

Milan Škriniar

90'

Denzel Dumfries

90+5'

G. Pereiro← H. Lozano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InterPSV

Overview

65%Possession35%

23Total Shots6

6Corners2

15Fouls17

Shots

23Total Shots6

9On Target5

7Off Target1

7Blocked0

15Inside Box4

8Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

629Total Passes349

547Accurate Passes273

87%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves8

Discipline

15Fouls17

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4