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PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles — Eredivisie 2018

PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Heracles
Heracles
12/13/2025EredivisieEredivisie · Round 16Philips Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

PSV Eindhoven74%
×Draw16%
Heracles10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSV Eindhoven
2.59
Heracles
0.85

PSV Eindhoven creates 205% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 117 away

creates per match

PSV Eindhoven
3.07
Heracles
0.79

allows per match

PSV Eindhoven
0.92
Heracles
2.12

finishing

PSV Eindhoven+0.00on par
Heracles+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Eindhoven ↓

Heracles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

PSV Eindhoven or draw
90%
PSV Eindhoven or Heracles
84%
Draw or Heracles
26%

Winning margin

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+
52%
Heracles wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals
92%
PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals
73%
PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals
47%
Heracles 1+ goals
57%
Heracles 2+ goals
21%
Heracles 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)
88%
Heracles (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Eindhoven at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.92 · 132 matches

Heracles away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.12 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Eindhoven attack 3.07 + Heracles defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.59

Heracles attack 0.79 + PSV Eindhoven defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

PSV Eindhoven scores more
74%
level
16%
Heracles scores more
10%

PSV Eindhoven at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles

PSV Eindhoven beat Heracles 4-3 in Eredivisie on December 13, 2025.

The match was played at Philips Stadion in Eindhoven.