Heracles 1–3 PSV Eindhoven: Result & Stats

Heracles

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

PSV Eindhoven

2/28/2026

Eredivisie · Round 25Asito Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Heracles28%

×Draw22%

PSV Eindhoven50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeraclesExpected goals in this matchPSV Eindhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

2.00

Heracles

1.45

PSV Eindhoven

2.00

PSV Eindhoven creates 38% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 133 away

1.73

creates per match

2.38

1.62

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Heracles

1.73

PSV Eindhoven

2.38

allows per match

Heracles

1.62

PSV Eindhoven

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heracles+0.00on par

PSV Eindhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heracles ↓

PSV Eindhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Heracles or draw

50%

Heracles or PSV Eindhoven

78%

Draw or PSV Eindhoven

72%

Winning margin

Heracles wins by 2+

13%

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Heracles 1+ goals

77%

Heracles 2+ goals

42%

Heracles 3+ goals

18%

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals

86%

PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals

59%

PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Heracles (draw refunded)

36%

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heracles at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.62 · 117 matches

PSV Eindhoven away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.17 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heracles attack 1.73 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.45

PSV Eindhoven attack 2.38 + Heracles defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Heracles scores more

28%

level

22%

PSV Eindhoven scores more

50%

PSV Eindhoven at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff