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PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam — Eredivisie 2018

PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Volendam
FC Volendam
9/30/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 7Philips Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

PSV Eindhoven75%
×Draw15%
FC Volendam10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSV Eindhoven
2.68
FC Volendam
0.88

PSV Eindhoven creates 205% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 52 away

creates per match

PSV Eindhoven
3.07
FC Volendam
0.83

allows per match

PSV Eindhoven
0.92
FC Volendam
2.29

finishing

PSV Eindhoven+0.00on par
FC Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Eindhoven ↓

FC Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

PSV Eindhoven or draw
90%
PSV Eindhoven or FC Volendam
85%
Draw or FC Volendam
25%

Winning margin

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+
54%
FC Volendam wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals
93%
PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals
74%
PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals
49%
FC Volendam 1+ goals
59%
FC Volendam 2+ goals
22%
FC Volendam 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)
88%
FC Volendam (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Eindhoven at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.92 · 132 matches

FC Volendam away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.29 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Eindhoven attack 3.07 + FC Volendam defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.68

FC Volendam attack 0.83 + PSV Eindhoven defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

PSV Eindhoven scores more
75%
level
15%
FC Volendam scores more
10%

PSV Eindhoven at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: PSV Eindhoven 3–1 FC Volendam

PSV Eindhoven beat FC Volendam 3-1 in Eredivisie on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Philips Stadion in Eindhoven.