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FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven — Eredivisie 2018

FC Volendam
FC Volendam
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
2/13/2026EredivisieEredivisie · Round 23Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FC Volendam22%
×Draw21%
PSV Eindhoven58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Volendam
1.26
PSV Eindhoven
2.16

PSV Eindhoven creates 71% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 133 away

creates per match

FC Volendam
1.35
PSV Eindhoven
2.38

allows per match

FC Volendam
1.94
PSV Eindhoven
1.17

finishing

FC Volendam+0.00on par
PSV Eindhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Volendam ↓

PSV Eindhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FC Volendam or draw
42%
FC Volendam or PSV Eindhoven
79%
Draw or PSV Eindhoven
78%

Winning margin

FC Volendam wins by 2+
9%
PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

FC Volendam 1+ goals
72%
FC Volendam 2+ goals
36%
FC Volendam 3+ goals
13%
PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals
88%
PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals
63%
PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

FC Volendam (draw refunded)
27%
PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Volendam at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.94 · 51 matches

PSV Eindhoven away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.17 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Volendam attack 1.35 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

PSV Eindhoven attack 2.38 + FC Volendam defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Volendam scores more
22%
level
21%
PSV Eindhoven scores more
58%

PSV Eindhoven at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: FC Volendam 2–1 PSV Eindhoven

FC Volendam beat PSV Eindhoven 2-1 in Eredivisie on February 13, 2026.

The match was played at Kras Stadion in Volendam.