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PSTC Procopense vs Apucarana — Paranaense - 2 2020

PSTC Procopense
PSTC Procopense
FT
2 – 0
Apucarana
Apucarana
4/29/2023Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Ubirajara Medeiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

PSTC Procopense46%
×Draw27%
Apucarana27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSTC Procopense
1.38
Apucarana
1.00

PSTC Procopense creates 38% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

creates per match

PSTC Procopense
1.25
Apucarana
0.79

allows per match

PSTC Procopense
1.21
Apucarana
1.50

finishing

PSTC Procopense+0.00on par
Apucarana+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSTC Procopense ↓

Apucarana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

PSTC Procopense or draw
73%
PSTC Procopense or Apucarana
73%
Draw or Apucarana
54%

Winning margin

PSTC Procopense wins by 2+
22%
Apucarana wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

PSTC Procopense 1+ goals
75%
PSTC Procopense 2+ goals
40%
PSTC Procopense 3+ goals
16%
Apucarana 1+ goals
63%
Apucarana 2+ goals
26%
Apucarana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

PSTC Procopense (draw refunded)
63%
Apucarana (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSTC Procopense at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Apucarana away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSTC Procopense attack 1.25 + Apucarana defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Apucarana attack 0.79 + PSTC Procopense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

PSTC Procopense scores more
46%
level
27%
Apucarana scores more
27%

PSTC Procopense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PSTC Procopense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: PSTC Procopense 2–0 Apucarana

PSTC Procopense beat Apucarana 2-0 in Paranaense - 2 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Ubirajara Medeiros in Cornélio Procópio, Paraná.