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Apucarana vs PSTC Procopense — Paranaense - 2 2020

Apucarana
Apucarana
FT
2 – 0
PSTC Procopense
PSTC Procopense
4/17/2022Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Olímpio Barreto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Apucarana47%
×Draw26%
PSTC Procopense27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apucarana
1.52
PSTC Procopense
1.09

Apucarana creates 39% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 19 away

creates per match

Apucarana
1.50
PSTC Procopense
1.47

allows per match

Apucarana
0.71
PSTC Procopense
1.53

finishing

Apucarana+0.00on par
PSTC Procopense+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apucarana ↓

PSTC Procopense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Apucarana or draw
73%
Apucarana or PSTC Procopense
74%
Draw or PSTC Procopense
53%

Winning margin

Apucarana wins by 2+
24%
PSTC Procopense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Apucarana 1+ goals
78%
Apucarana 2+ goals
45%
Apucarana 3+ goals
20%
PSTC Procopense 1+ goals
66%
PSTC Procopense 2+ goals
30%
PSTC Procopense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Apucarana (draw refunded)
63%
PSTC Procopense (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apucarana at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.71 · 24 matches

PSTC Procopense away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apucarana attack 1.50 + PSTC Procopense defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

PSTC Procopense attack 1.47 + Apucarana defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Apucarana scores more
47%
level
26%
PSTC Procopense scores more
27%

Apucarana at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Apucarana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Apucarana 2–0 PSTC Procopense

Apucarana beat PSTC Procopense 2-0 in Paranaense - 2 on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Olímpio Barreto in Apucarana, Paraná.