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PSNI vs Knockbreda — League #407 2026

PSNI
PSNI
FT
3 – 2
Knockbreda
Knockbreda
9/14/2019League #407League #407 · Round 8Newforge Lane (Belfast)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

PSNI53%
×Draw19%
Knockbreda28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSNI
2.50
Knockbreda
1.78

PSNI creates 40% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

PSNI
2.00
Knockbreda
0.86

allows per match

PSNI
2.71
Knockbreda
3.00

finishing

PSNI+0.00on par
Knockbreda+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSNI ↓

Knockbreda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

PSNI or draw
72%
PSNI or Knockbreda
81%
Draw or Knockbreda
47%

Winning margin

PSNI wins by 2+
33%
Knockbreda wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

PSNI 1+ goals
92%
PSNI 2+ goals
71%
PSNI 3+ goals
45%
Knockbreda 1+ goals
83%
Knockbreda 2+ goals
53%
Knockbreda 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

PSNI (draw refunded)
66%
Knockbreda (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSNI at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Knockbreda away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSNI attack 2.00 + Knockbreda defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Knockbreda attack 0.86 + PSNI defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

PSNI scores more
53%
level
19%
Knockbreda scores more
28%

PSNI at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "PSNI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #407: PSNI 3–2 Knockbreda

PSNI beat Knockbreda 3-2 in League #407 on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Newforge Lane (Belfast).