Knockbreda 5–2 PSNI: Result & Stats | Championship

Knockbreda

FT

5 – 2

PSNI

3/16/2019

Championship · Relegation Round - 6Breda Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Knockbreda52%

×Draw18%

PSNI29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KnockbredaExpected goals in this matchPSNI

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

2.10

Knockbreda

2.80

PSNI

2.10

Knockbreda creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

3.00

creates per match

2.20

2.00

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Knockbreda

3.00

PSNI

2.20

allows per match

Knockbreda

2.00

PSNI

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Knockbreda+0.00on par

PSNI+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Knockbreda ↓

PSNI →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Knockbreda or draw

71%

Knockbreda or PSNI

82%

Draw or PSNI

48%

Winning margin

Knockbreda wins by 2+

34%

PSNI wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Knockbreda 1+ goals

94%

Knockbreda 2+ goals

76%

Knockbreda 3+ goals

52%

PSNI 1+ goals

88%

PSNI 2+ goals

62%

PSNI 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Knockbreda (draw refunded)

64%

PSNI (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Knockbreda at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

PSNI away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Knockbreda attack 3.00 + PSNI defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.80

PSNI attack 2.20 + Knockbreda defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Knockbreda scores more

52%

level

18%

PSNI scores more

29%

Knockbreda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Knockbreda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff