PSNI 1–4 H&W Welders: Result & Stats | League #407

PSNI

FT

1 – 4

H&W Welders

11/30/2019

League #407 · Round 19Newforge Lane (Belfast)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

PSNI31%

×Draw20%

H&W Welders49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PSNIExpected goals in this matchH&W Welders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

2.44

PSNI

1.92

H&W Welders

2.44

H&W Welders creates 27% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

2.00

creates per match

2.17

2.71

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

PSNI

2.00

H&W Welders

2.17

allows per match

PSNI

2.71

H&W Welders

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PSNI+0.00on par

H&W Welders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSNI ↓

H&W Welders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

PSNI or draw

51%

PSNI or H&W Welders

80%

Draw or H&W Welders

69%

Winning margin

PSNI wins by 2+

16%

H&W Welders wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

PSNI 1+ goals

85%

PSNI 2+ goals

57%

PSNI 3+ goals

30%

H&W Welders 1+ goals

91%

H&W Welders 2+ goals

70%

H&W Welders 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

PSNI (draw refunded)

38%

H&W Welders (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSNI at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

H&W Welders away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSNI attack 2.00 + H&W Welders defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

H&W Welders attack 2.17 + PSNI defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

PSNI scores more

31%

level

20%

H&W Welders scores more

49%

H&W Welders at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff