H&W Welders 2–2 PSNI: Result & Stats | League #407

H&W Welders

FT

2 – 2

PSNI

M. Ferguson 81'

L. Gwiazda 16'

T. Tumelty 76'

O. O'Neil 53'

9/21/2019

League #407 · Round 9Blanchflower Stadium (Belfast)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

H&W Welders53%

×Draw20%

PSNI27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

H&W WeldersExpected goals in this matchPSNI

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.65

H&W Welders

2.36

PSNI

1.65

H&W Welders creates 43% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 12 away

2.30

creates per match

1.92

1.39

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

H&W Welders

2.30

PSNI

1.92

allows per match

H&W Welders

1.39

PSNI

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

H&W Welders+0.00on par

PSNI+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&W Welders ↓

PSNI →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

H&W Welders or draw

73%

H&W Welders or PSNI

80%

Draw or PSNI

47%

Winning margin

H&W Welders wins by 2+

33%

PSNI wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

H&W Welders 1+ goals

90%

H&W Welders 2+ goals

68%

H&W Welders 3+ goals

41%

PSNI 1+ goals

81%

PSNI 2+ goals

49%

PSNI 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

H&W Welders (draw refunded)

66%

PSNI (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&W Welders at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

PSNI away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&W Welders attack 2.30 + PSNI defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.36

PSNI attack 1.92 + H&W Welders defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

H&W Welders scores more

53%

level

20%

PSNI scores more

27%

H&W Welders at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

L. Gwiazda

53'

O. O'Neil

76'

T. Tumelty

81'

M. Ferguson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff