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PSM Makassar vs Kaya — AFC Cup 2018

PSM Makassar
PSM Makassar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kaya
Kaya
3/10/2020AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Stadion Pakansari Bogor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

PSM Makassar59%
×Draw20%
Kaya21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSM Makassar
2.20
Kaya
1.23

PSM Makassar creates 79% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

PSM Makassar
2.31
Kaya
1.08

allows per match

PSM Makassar
1.38
Kaya
2.08

finishing

PSM Makassar+0.00on par
Kaya+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSM Makassar ↓

Kaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

PSM Makassar or draw
79%
PSM Makassar or Kaya
80%
Draw or Kaya
41%

Winning margin

PSM Makassar wins by 2+
37%
Kaya wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

PSM Makassar 1+ goals
89%
PSM Makassar 2+ goals
64%
PSM Makassar 3+ goals
37%
Kaya 1+ goals
71%
Kaya 2+ goals
35%
Kaya 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

PSM Makassar (draw refunded)
74%
Kaya (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSM Makassar at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Kaya away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSM Makassar attack 2.31 + Kaya defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.20

Kaya attack 1.08 + PSM Makassar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

PSM Makassar scores more
59%
level
20%
Kaya scores more
21%

PSM Makassar at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "PSM Makassar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: PSM Makassar 1–1 Kaya

PSM Makassar and Kaya drew 1-1 in AFC Cup on March 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Pakansari Bogor in Cibinong.