Kaya 1–2 PSM Makassar: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Kaya

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

PSM Makassar

4/17/2019

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Panaad Stadium (Bacolod City)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kaya30%

×Draw23%

PSM Makassar47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KayaExpected goals in this matchPSM Makassar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.79

Kaya

1.40

PSM Makassar

1.79

PSM Makassar creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.25

creates per match

2.00

1.58

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Kaya

1.25

PSM Makassar

2.00

allows per match

Kaya

1.58

PSM Makassar

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaya+0.00on par

PSM Makassar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaya ↓

PSM Makassar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kaya or draw

53%

Kaya or PSM Makassar

77%

Draw or PSM Makassar

70%

Winning margin

Kaya wins by 2+

13%

PSM Makassar wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Kaya 1+ goals

75%

Kaya 2+ goals

41%

Kaya 3+ goals

17%

PSM Makassar 1+ goals

83%

PSM Makassar 2+ goals

53%

PSM Makassar 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Kaya (draw refunded)

39%

PSM Makassar (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaya at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

PSM Makassar away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaya attack 1.25 + PSM Makassar defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

PSM Makassar attack 2.00 + Kaya defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kaya scores more

30%

level

23%

PSM Makassar scores more

47%

PSM Makassar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "PSM Makassar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff